Demo Health System

What happened: 1 Anesthesia are flagged as attrition risks at a time when the role is already short (106% subscribed).

Likely driver: Sustained over-utilization and overtime exposure raise burnout and turnover risk in constrained roles.

Impact: Losing them would deepen the shortfall by ~1 FTE and compound case deferrals.

Suggested next action: Prioritise retention (schedule relief, premium pay, float pool) and begin backfill recruitment now.

What happened: The current coverage gap (~1,803 staffed minutes/week) maps to roughly 16.2 cases/week that can't be reliably staffed.

Likely driver: Demand that exceeds staffed capacity is absorbed by overtime or pushed out, deferring contribution margin.

Impact: At $4,074 average margin/case, that is about $3,441,099/yr exposed.

Suggested next action: Close the binding-role gap (hire/cross-cover) and model the payback in the scenario planner before committing.

What happened: Anesthesia are staffed to 106% of the minutes forecasted demand requires — a shortfall of about 0.4 FTE.

Likely driver: Forecasted case minutes exceed available staffed minutes for this role, the binding constraint on bookable volume.

Impact: Under-coverage forces overtime, case deferrals, or end-of-day cancellations and caps surgical throughput.

Suggested next action: Recruit or cross-cover the role, rebalance sessions toward demand, or smooth the schedule to fit current capacity.

What happened: Orthopedics demand requires more surgeon minutes than the 3 surgeons on the roster provide (gap ~0.3 FTE).

Likely driver: Demand growth or block concentration in this service line outpacing its surgeon roster.

Impact: Wait times grow and cases spill to overtime or competitors while other lines may sit under-subscribed.

Suggested next action: Add surgeon sessions in this line, recruit, or shift flexible block from a surplus line.

What happened: Weekly OR demand is trending up about 1.01% per week (~53%/yr on the current run-rate).

Likely driver: Volume growth, seasonality, or backlog recovery pushing case minutes above the staffed plan.

Impact: Even roles that look adequate today will fall short within the forecast horizon if hiring lags demand.

Suggested next action: Refresh the staffing plan against the forecast and pre-position recruitment ahead of the curve.