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Demo Health System · 15 weeks of synthetic OR demand · forecasting the care-team capacity needed to meet it.
Margin at staffing risk (annualized)
$3.4M/yr
~0.8 FTE short of forecasted demand · $4,074 avg margin/case
Overall demand load
97.4%
required demand ÷ staffed capacity · >100% = short
Demand trend
+1.01%/wk
132 cases/week
Weekly Demand
132 cases
259 hrs/wk
Demand Load
97.4%
Required ÷ staffed min · >100% short
Staffing Gap
0.8 FTE
Line-aware shortfall
Care Team
50
3 at attrition risk
Avg Margin / Case
$4,074
Contribution
Forecast Horizon
8 weeks
Demand outlook
Demand load = required demand minutes ÷ staffed capacity minutes. Over 100% means demand exceeds capacity (short).
| Role | Headcount | Demand load | Gap (FTE) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surgeons | 18 · 18 FTE | 98.7% | — | Tight |
| Anesthesia | 10 · 10 FTE | 106.0% | 0.4 | Short |
| OR Nursing & Techs | 22 · 22 FTE | 93.0% | — | Tight |
| Service line | Surgeons | Demand load | Gap (FTE) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orthopedics | 3 | 118.0% | 0.3 | Short |
| Cardiothoracic | 3 | 112.0% | 0.1 | Short |
| Neurosurgery | 3 | 103.9% | 0.0 | Short |
| General Surgery | 3 | 96.0% | — | Tight |
| Urology | 3 | 82.0% | — | Covered |
| ENT | 3 | 70.0% | — | Covered |
Deterministic weekday-seasonal projection with a confidence band. Demo estimate, not ML.
Prioritise retention (schedule relief, premium pay, float pool) and begin backfill recruitment now.
Close the binding-role gap (hire/cross-cover) and model the payback in the scenario planner before committing.
Recruit or cross-cover the role, rebalance sessions toward demand, or smooth the schedule to fit current capacity.